Eu estou corrigido. Sua plataforma inútil foi para baixo para 2,5 horas. SIM 2.5 HORAS no dia 4 de setembro (não na 8ª). Vamos testar sua honestidade agora. Desde então, quantas vezes tem a sua plataforma foi para baixo. Gostaria de dizer pelo menos 4 vezes. Como é este um sistema de confiança É duro bastante fazer a troca do dinheiro sem ter que tratar de um sistema retarded que não seja de confiança. Vocês são bandidos. 2014-09-18 1Star Felizmente eu fechei minha conta, mas aparentemente eles tiveram outro grande corte no dia 19. Isso s 3 interrupções que cada um durou mais de 2 horas. Eu me pergunto quantas pessoas eles enroscaram por esse tempo. Como são esses caras ainda no negócio 2014-09-13 1Star ATC não é um corretor. Eles são um homem do meio que, em última instância, cobra taxas por nada. De fato você está pior, porque agora é um sistema mais complexo, então se ATC de FXCM vai para baixo você vai shafted. Pergunte a qualquer um que estava negociando em 8 de setembro o que aconteceu quando o sistema estava desativado por mais de 2,5 horas. Eles usaram isso como uma oportunidade para preencher qualquer ordem que eles queriam e rejeitar o que eles queriam. Irá fornecer declarações para prová-lo. Puro ladrões Copyscape: 0 correspondente Checked 18 de setembro de 2014 Comentário: Adicionado por ATC BROKERS em 2014-09-22 Como nós apreciamos comentários e comentários, não apreciamos informações falsas e enganosas que são feitas para o público devido à falta de conhecimento Do usuário final. O hotel fez experiência questões técnicas no 4º setembro (não 8º, como indicado) para uma duração aproximada de uma hora (não 2,5 horas, como indicado) e peço desculpas por qualquer inconveniente que você experiente. Durante este tempo, nossa equipe estava disponível para os clientes que chamaram nossa mesa de comércio e colocados comércios. Além disso, além de sua acusação ridícula de preencher as ordens que eles queriam e rejeitar o que eles queriam ser enganosa, não é possível para nós fazer isso, pois não somos a contraparte e não possuem fundos do cliente. Como afirmado sobre os comentários de revisão anterior, ATC BROKERS é um IB (introduzindo corretor) para FXCM. Conectamos nosso MT4 ao modelo de preços institucionais do FXCM para obter spreads competitivos e fornecer a execução de ordens de processamento direto (STP). Nós utilizamos FXCM como a contraparte e trabalhar com ambos os EUA e Reino Unido divisão. Nós somos um dos poucos corretores honestos na indústria. Nós fomos estabelecidos em 2005 e crescemos nosso negócio principalmente através do boca a boca, que diz muito sobre a integridade de uma companhia s. Infelizmente, esta indústria tem sido poluída com muitos corretores corruptos que tirar proveito dos clientes. Entendemos que há uma falta de confiança dos clientes e esperamos que os comerciantes vão perceber que nossa empresa é diferente de muitos dos corretores lá fora, por causa de nossa abordagem transparente. Sr. Naikuonam, como nenhuma surpresa, nós não vemos seu nome em nosso cliente banco de dados. Se você tem uma conta ao vivo conosco, entre em contato com nosso escritório e faça a sua revisão de pedidos, pois gostaríamos muito da oportunidade de nos provar sua teoria. Estamos ansiosos para ouvir de você. Aviso de Risco e Aviso de Risco. Por favor leia. Aviso de Risco. Negociação de câmbio sobre margem carrega um alto nível de risco, e pode não ser adequado para todos os investidores. O alto grau de alavancagem pode trabalhar contra você, bem como para você. Antes de decidir investir em divisas você deve considerar cuidadosamente seus objetivos de investimento, nível de experiência e apetite pelo risco. A possibilidade existe que você poderia sustentar uma perda de alguns ou todos do seu investimento inicial e, portanto, você não deve investir o dinheiro que você não pode dar ao luxo de perder. Você deve estar ciente de todos os riscos associados com negociação de câmbio, e procurar aconselhamento de um consultor financeiro independente, se você tiver quaisquer dúvidas. Disclaimer Todas as informações publicadas neste site são de nossa opinião e da opinião de nossos visitantes, e podem não refletir a verdade. Use seu próprio bom senso e procure aconselhamento de um consultor qualificado, antes de acreditar e aceitar qualquer informação publicada neste site. Também nos reservamos o direito de remover, editar, mover ou fechar qualquer postagem por qualquer motivo. Anúncios Anúncios de advertência são exibidos em todo o site. Algumas páginas do site podem conter links de afiliados para produtos. 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Estamos comprometidos com o tratamento justo de revisões e postagens, independentemente de tais relações. Copyright ForexPeaceArmy. Todos os direitos reservados. Forex Peace Army, ForexPeaceArmy, FPA e o FPA Shield Logo são marcas registradas do Forex Peace Army. Todos os direitos reservados nos EUA e direito internacional. O exército da paz de Forex confia no anúncio da bandeira para mantê-lo LIVRE para tudo. Você também pode ajudar - considere desativar o AdBlocker enquanto navega no nosso site. Obrigado pela nossa comunidade de comerciantes :-) Forex Advanced Candlestick Padrões de Reversão A maioria dos comerciantes de forex que usam a análise técnica como a base para suas posições passam muito tempo assistindo gráficos de castiçal. Esse tipo de gráfico é útil em várias frentes diferentes, e um dos melhores exemplos disso pode ser encontrado nas formas como os gráficos de velas podem facilitar a detecção de reversões. Quando falamos de reversões, a idéia principal é que qualquer tendência predominante começou a atingir seu ponto de exaustão e que os preços estão prontos para começar a se mover no sentido oposto. No momento, pode parecer muito difícil saber que todo o impulso direcional anterior realmente correu seu curso. Mas quando usamos formações candlestick como uma ferramenta de identificação, existem alguns sinais específicos que são enviados em uma base regular. Aqui, vamos olhar para várias formações do doji, bem como a bullish e bearish engulfing padrões. Padrão de Doji O padrão do candelabro de doji é um sinal forte da inversão que mostre o momento do mercado está funcionando para fora. Uma vez que a maioria da atividade de compra ou venda já ocorreu, qualquer indicação de que o número de participantes da maioria está diminuindo pode ser usada como uma oportunidade para começar a tomar posições de forex na outra direção. O padrão doji pode ser de alta ou baixa na natureza, tudo dependendo da direção da tendência anterior. Fonte do gráfico: Forexmachines As formações do candlestick mostradas acima puderam olhar diferentes na forma, mas todas essencialmente dizem a mesma história. O padrão de doji comum é composto de um corpo de vela muito pequena com um pavio superior e inferior. O doji de pernas longas também tem um corpo de vela muito pequeno que está aproximadamente no centro da formação. Neste caso, no entanto, as mechas superior e inferior são mais longas, o que, em última análise, sugere que houve maior volatilidade durante esse intervalo de tempo. O doji da lápide é uma das versões as mais bearish do teste padrão. Neste caso, o padrão mostra um corpo de vela muito pequena no fundo, com uma mecha longa para a parte superior. Esse padrão mostra que os mercados subiram rapidamente para níveis que eram insustentáveis. Os vendedores então assumiram o controle e o intervalo de tempo terminou. Se esta formação for seguida por uma vela encorpada, a confirmação está no lugar e as posições curtas podem ser tomadas. A libélula doji é uma das versões mais otimistas do padrão. Neste caso, o padrão mostra um corpo de vela muito pequena na parte superior, com uma mecha longa na parte inferior. Esse padrão mostra que os mercados caíram para níveis insustentáveis. Os compradores então assumiram e o intervalo de tempo terminou. Se esta formação for seguida por uma vela bullish full-bodied, a confirmação está no lugar e as posições longas podem ser tomadas. Gráfico Fonte: Metatrader No gráfico acima, podemos ver que a atividade de preços foi fortemente alta no AUD / USD. Mas nenhuma tendência pode durar para sempre, e momentum do mercado começa a retardar enquanto o processo se levanta acima da área 0.9300. Aqui, um padrão bearish doji formas sugerindo que a tendência bull anterior está pronta para inverter. Depois que o doji é visto, uma vela bearish forte forma, confirmando o teste padrão da reversão. Posições curtas poderiam ter sido tomadas nesta fase, e os comerciantes de forex poderiam ter capitalizado em todo o movimento de queda que se seguiu. Padrões Engulfing Bullish e Bearish Em termos de formações candlestick, o padrão doji é relativamente extremo e exige definições rigorosas para o que pode ser visto no corpo, a fim de ser válido. Mas há outra forma de padrão que é menos rígida, mas tão poderosa nas maneiras como pode prever inversões de tendência. Em seguida, olhamos para o padrão bullish e bearish engulfing, que é outro indicador de castiçal que pode ser usado no estabelecimento de posições forex. O seguinte mostra a estrutura do padrão engulfing bullish: No padrão engulfing bullish, uma tendência de baixa é visto chegando ao fim. As tendências de baixa são dominadas por velas de baixa, e uma vela bearish pequena é o que é needed começar o teste padrão enculfing bullish. Esta vela baixa bearish é seguida então por uma vela bullish mais grande que overwhelms, ou engulfs o que foi visto previamente. No gráfico acima, podemos ver que o primeiro corpo de vela é aproximadamente metade do tamanho do corpo de vela alcista que se segue. Os mercados empurram inicialmente os preços mais baixos, e esta abertura para baixo cria um wick mais baixo que se estenda abaixo da vela bearish inicial. O momento de mercado inverte-se, estendendo-se a um novo maior e um forte fechamento positivo que é maior no Dia 2. O seguinte mostra a estrutura do padrão de engolir de baixa: No padrão de engolir de baixa, uma tendência de alta é vista chegando ao fim. Uptrends são dominados por velas de alta, e uma pequena vela otimista é o que é necessário para começar o padrão engulfing bearish. Esta pequena vela de alta é então seguida por uma vela maior de baixa que abruma, ou engloba o que foi visto anteriormente. No gráfico acima, podemos ver que o primeiro corpo de vela é aproximadamente metade do tamanho do corpo de vela bearish que se segue. Mercados inicialmente empurrar os preços mais elevados, e essa diferença para cima cria uma mecha maior que se estende abaixo da vela alcista inicial. O momento do mercado inverte-se, estendendo-se a uma nova baixa inferior e um forte fechamento negativo que é menor no dia 2. Fonte do gráfico: Metatrader Que tipo de padrão engulfing está presente aqui Desde a tendência inicial é para baixo e, em seguida, mais tarde ver uma reversão bullish. O tipo de estrutura aqui é o padrão engulfing bullish. Aqui, podemos ver que os preços caem para cerca de 115 e a série de pequenas velas vermelhas é encerrada por uma forte vela verde que sugere uma inversão é iminente. Os comerciantes de Forex poderiam ter tomado posições longas aqui. E capitalizou sobre os ganhos que se seguiram. Carry Trades O mercado forex está associado algumas estratégias de negociação poucos que não podem ser encontrados em outras classes de ativos. Um exemplo pode ser visto no carry trade, que beneficia de diferenças nas taxas de juros que podem ser encontrados quando emparelhamento moedas em conjunto. Todas as posições de forex envolvem a compra e venda simultânea de duas moedas diferentes. Quando os comerciantes comprar uma moeda com uma taxa de juros elevada em troca de uma moeda com uma taxa de juros mais baixa, o diferencial de taxa de juros se acumula em uma base diária. Ao longo do tempo, essas posições podem tornar-se bastante rentável como o carry value destes negócios é essencialmente garantido (enquanto o diferencial de taxa de juros permanece intacto). Por estas razões, há muitos comerciantes que optar por se concentrar exclusivamente sobre esses tipos de estratégias. Aqui, vamos olhar para alguns exemplos de operações de carry hipotético, a fim de ver como os lucros podem ser capturados ao longo do tempo. Moedas e taxas de juros Todas as moedas estão associadas a uma taxa de juros específica. Estas taxas são determinadas pelo banco central de cada nação. É por isso que as reuniões de política monetária nos bancos centrais são vistos com um alto nível de importância pelos comerciantes forex. Quando você compra uma moeda, você ganha a taxa de juros durante o tempo que você mantenha a posição. Por exemplo, se o Banco Central Europeu tiver estabelecido a sua taxa de juro de referência em 2,5, ganhará 2,5 na sua posição por cada ano em que detém essa moeda. Se você vender a moeda (ou seja, em uma posição curta no EUR / USD), sua conta forex seria debitado -2,5 para cada ano que você mantenha a posição. Em todos os casos, estes créditos e débitos irão acumular diariamente, uma vez que a posição é mantida através do período de rollover em 5pm. Exemplos de negociação Vamos considerar alguns exemplos de negociação hipotéticos usando o raciocínio carry trade. Historicamente, o Dólar Australiano (AUD) tem sido associado a altas taxas de juros, enquanto o Iene Japonês (JPY) tem sido associado a baixas taxas de juros. Por esta razão, o AUD / JPY é uma das opções mais populares para carry trades. Hipoteticamente, vamos supor que o Banco da Austrália estabeleceu sua taxa básica de juros em 5. Suponhamos também que o Banco do Japão estabeleceu sua taxa de juros básica em 0,5. O diferencial de taxa de juros para essas duas moedas seria então de 4,5, então se você fosse comprar o AUD / JPY e manter a posição por um ano você ganharia uma garantia de 4,5 em sua posição. Isto seria independente de quaisquer alterações verificadas na taxa de câmbio subjacente entre estas duas moedas. Negativo Carry Como um ponto de ilustração, também deve ser entendido que carry value também pode trabalhar na direção oposta. Vamos supor que o Federal Reserve estabeleceu a taxa de juros para o dólar americano em 3,5. Ao mesmo tempo, o Banco do Canadá estabeleceu a taxa de juros para o dólar canadense em 2. O que aconteceria se você optar por tomar uma posição curta no USD / CAD Uma posição curta no USD / CAD significaria que você está vendendo o USD e comprando o CAD. Uma vez que você estaria comprando a moeda com a menor taxa de juros, sua posição seria exposta a carry negativo que neste caso significa que a sua conta de negociação seria debitado um valor igual a -1,5 de sua posição para cada ano a posição é detida. Isso ocorre porque o diferencial de taxa de juros entre o USD eo CAD é de 1,5 (3,5 e 2). Por causa disto, as posições a longo prazo que são associadas com o carry negativo estão expor ao risco mais grande porque as perdas são garantidas. Quaisquer lucros que possam ser gerados por potenciais mudanças na taxa de câmbio subjacente ainda precisariam contabilizar os custos de carry incorridos durante a vida do cargo. Posicionamento de longo prazo Os comerciantes de Forex que empregam estratégias de carry trade tendem a ser os comerciantes que possuem uma perspectiva de longo prazo. Isso ocorre porque geralmente leva muito tempo para gerar lucros suficientes para justificar a posição. Os valores de taxa de juros que são cotados por seu corretor forex são dadas em uma base anual. Isso não significa que você será obrigado a manter suas posições por um ano inteiro, a fim de capturar os benefícios do carry trade. Todas as posições são prorrateadas, e seus lucros e perdas finais serão determinados pelo tempo exato que você ocupou cada posição. Mercados correlacionados A maioria dos comerciantes de forex nos estágios avançados de sua carreira tendem a colocar a maioria de seu foco no mercado de moeda. Há uma boa razão para isso, pois permite uma maior familiaridade dentro de uma classe de ativos específicos. Mas um problema com esta abordagem é o fato de que se torna muito fácil esquecer que todos os mercados estão interligados e influenciam-se mutuamente. Forex não é certamente diferente, e por isso faz sentido ter uma compreensão das formas como áreas como ações e commodities trabalham com (e contra) os mercados de moeda. Aqui, vamos olhar para alguns dos fatores que impulsionam as correlações entre forex e as outras classes de ativos principais. Estoques individuais têm pouca ou nenhuma influência nos mercados de forex, mas isso não é o caso quando olhamos para os índices de referência como um todo. Instrumentos rigorosamente observados como o S, especialmente as moedas que estão mais estreitamente associadas a essas regiões geográficas. Os dias fortemente bullish no DAX alemão e no CAC francês 40 tendem a suportar pares do forex como EUR / USD e EUR / JPY. A atividade positiva no Nikkei 225 tende a criar pressão de venda nos pares de forex denominados no iene japonês (como o JPY é a moeda de contrapartida nesses pares). As variações dos preços no GBP / USD serão muitas vezes influenciadas pelo FTSE 100. E muitos comerciantes forex vão esperar para ver as tendências prevalecentes em cada um desses benchmarks antes de estabelecer posições de curto prazo. No caso do dólar americano. As coisas tendem a funcionar em sentido inverso. Uma vez que o USD é geralmente considerado como um ativo de refúgio seguro. Muitas vezes o comércio na direção oposta relativamente aos benchmarks centrais no P 500 dos EUA eo Dow Jones geralmente irá criar uma perspectiva mais negativa para o USD. Commodities Os mercados de commodities impactarão os preços do forex de diferentes maneiras. Países que são conhecidos pela produção de metais tendem a beneficiar quando o preço para esses ativos está aumentando. Por exemplo, há uma grande quantidade de produção de cobre na Austrália. Nos dias em que os preços do cobre estão subindo, pares de moedas como o AUD / USD tendem a se beneficiar. Da mesma forma, os altos níveis de produção de ouro no Canadá criam uma correlação positiva entre o preço do ouro e o CAD. Nos dias em que os preços do ouro estão subindo, pares de moeda como o CAD / JPY tendem a subir (e vice-versa). Ao mesmo tempo, o USD tende a trabalhar na direção oposta. Isso ocorre porque as commodities são preços em dólares dos EUA, para que os comerciantes geralmente precisam vender dólares para comprar ouro ou óleo. Se você ver um dia de negociação onde o petróleo está rali, não vai ser pelo menos alguma pressão de queda colocada sobre os USD como o fluxo de ordem mais ampla que é visto no mercado vai exigir vendas extras do dólar. Por todas essas razões, faz sentido manter-se ciente das tendências em outras classes de ativos, mesmo que pareça que não há nenhuma conexão direta entre o seu comércio de forex e os últimos movimentos de preços em ações ou commodities . Para a maior parte, o que você deve estar procurando são correlações negativas e positivas e, em seguida, assistir o que está acontecendo em mercados alternativos antes de colocar qualquer nova posição forex. Essas correlações sozinhas podem não ser suficientes para serem usadas como base única para novas posições. Mas estes são fatores que devem ser considerados, pois há claras influências que podem ser medidos. Ter uma compreensão firme da maior interconexão entre esses mercados pode ajudá-lo a transformar suas probabilidades para o sucesso de volta em seu favor a longo prazo. Diversificação de um portfólio Forex A maioria com experiência de negociação nos mercados financeiros compreender que as diversificações é geralmente uma coisa boa. Quando pensamos em diversificação, ela geralmente está associada a investimentos em ações que estão espalhados por vários setores da indústria. Mas é possível diversificar sua carteira de forex, também. Isso pode ser feito separando as moedas em diferentes categorias e certificando-se de que você não é dobrada-up em qualquer um ativo. Aqui, vamos olhar para alguns dos fatores que vão para a diversificação de uma carteira de forex. Evitar Duplicação Primeiro, deve ser entendido que ter múltiplas posições em uma única moeda pode ser especialmente problemático. Por exemplo, vamos supor que um trader forex compre um lote no EUR / USD e um lote no EUR / GBP. Pode parecer como se o comerciante está tomando duas posições inteiramente diferentes, mas nada poderia estar mais longe da verdade. Em um cenário como este, o comerciante de forex seria essencialmente tomar uma posição dupla no EUR, mesmo que ele está sendo feito contra duas moedas diferentes. Aqui, o comerciante seria essencialmente colocando todos os ovos em uma cesta e seria especialmente vulnerável se alguma fraqueza é visto no euro. Em um caso como este, seria muito mais sábio para um comerciante a tomar uma meia posição em ambos os pares de moedas, como isso iria limitar a exposição excessiva na moeda Euro. Tendo em exposição excessiva em qualquer moeda única pode ser muito perigoso, e quebrar muitas das regras básicas forex que exigem uma boa gestão comercial. Não há nada de errado em separar sua postura em mais de um par de moedas. Mas regras adequadas de gerenciamento de comércio ditar que nenhuma posição de divisas deve expor seu saldo de conta para perdas de mais de 2-3. Portanto, se você está procurando expressar suas visões de mercado usando mais de um par de moedas, é importante evitar tomar posições de tamanho completo que compram ou vendem uma moeda única. Isso não é muito diferente do que tomar duas posições em um par, como qualquer atividade em baixa na moeda que você está comprando efetivamente gerar o dobro das perdas. Assista Correlações de moeda Outro fator a considerar é a correlação de moeda. Muitas moedas tendem a cair na mesma categoria, e se você estiver olhando para alcançar a diversificação em seu portfólio de forex, você precisará criar exposição a mais de um tipo de ativo. Por exemplo, o dólar americano (USD) e o franco suíço (CHF) caem ambos na categoria de refúgio seguro que se beneficia da incerteza econômica e do declínio dos mercados de ações. O iene japonês (JPY) é outra moeda que beneficia destes tipos de cenários como forex comerciantes muitas vezes olhar para fechar carry posições comerciais. Outros exemplos incluem moedas tradicionalmente de alto rendimento como o dólar australiano (AUD) e o dólar da Nova Zelândia (NZD). Ao mesmo tempo, o Euro ea Libra Esterlina (GBP) tendem a se mover em direções semelhantes, dada a natureza interconectada de ambas as economias. Alcançando a diversificação Com tudo isso em mente, os investidores forex com uma perspectiva de longo prazo devem olhar para espalhar sua carteira em mais de um tipo de moeda, evitando dobrar-up em qualquer posição. Por exemplo, os investidores de forex podem olhar para criar alguma exposição a moedas de alto rendimento, mantendo posições longas em uma moeda de refúgio seguro, a fim de proteger contra choques inesperados no mercado. Desta forma, a teoria da carteira moderna pode ser aplicada a outros mercados que não ações e pode ser usada para suavizar a volatilidade em suas posições coletivas. Os comerciantes de Forex devem olhar suas carteiras como uma coleção das posições, melhor que um veículo para comprar uma única moeda corrente em pares múltiplos. Quando você joga para os pontos fortes de vários tipos de forex, torna-se muito mais fácil aproveitar os pontos positivos que são vistos cada classe de moeda. No mínimo, deve ser lembrado que uma verdadeira diversificação não pode ser alcançada utilizando mais de uma posição completa numa moeda única. É possível, no entanto, tomar uma posição maioritária em uma moeda ao usar tamanhos de posição reduzida. No exemplo inicial apresentado aqui, um comerciante seria muito mais seguro e protegido do risco se as posições EUR foram reduzidas. Isso poderia significar posições reduzidas em pares como EUR / USD, EUR / GBP e EUR / AUD. Forex Algorítmica e Negociação Quantitativa Vimos muitas novas tendências no comércio financeiro na última década. Um deles é o fato de que o comércio de Forex tornou-se popular como a internet tornou-se mais generalizada. Mas, juntamente com isso tem sido uma tendência crescente no comércio baseado em computador que permite a implementação de estratégias automatizadas. Para a maior parte, esses comércios são baseados em estratégias de análise técnica predeterminada que foram testados e comprovados sucesso ao longo do tempo. Dito isto, a negociação automatizada envolve algum nível de risco e há muitos pacotes da caixa preta que prometem retornos significativos ao longo de um curto período de tempo. Qualquer promessa extrema como esta deve ser satisfeita com pelo menos algum nível de ceticismo. Mas o fato é que a negociação algorítmica e quantitativa é uma parte válida do mercado cambial e isso não vai mudar a qualquer momento em breve. Aqui, nós olhamos para alguns dos fatores que devem ser considerados antes de colocar negociações algorítmicas que são baseadas em estratégias de quant. Estratégias Algorítmicas / Quantitativas Definidas Primeiro, os traders devem entender o que se entende por negociação algorítmica e quantitativa. Especificamente, esses termos se referem a instâncias em que os comerciantes de forex iniciam posições que são definidas por fórmulas matemáticas predeterminadas. Por exemplo, as negociações podem ser desencadeadas quando os preços sobem acima ou abaixo de uma determinada média móvel. Fatores como impulso de preço, desvio padrão, médias históricas e tendência tendem a ser usados como base para a maioria dessas estratégias. Uma vez que um conjunto específico de critérios são atendidos, os negócios são colocados e isso pode até incluir elementos adicionais, como a colocação de ordens stop loss e perdas de lucro. Expert Advisors Para desencadear esses comércios automaticamente, os comerciantes de forex geralmente usam um Expert Advisor. Ou EA. Isso pode ser feito usando uma plataforma de negociação forex que permite a negociação automatizada. Algumas das opções mais comuns aqui incluem TradeStation e Metatrader. Que são altamente plataforma personalizável que permitem a negociação algorítmica e quantitativa. Então, se você está interessado em realmente usar este tipo de estratégia, você vai querer ter certeza de que você use um corretor forex que oferece plataformas como estas ou algo semelhante. Ao procurar os próprios EAs, as opções são muito mais amplas. Para obter alguma perspectiva, a sua plataforma de negociação forex pode ser pensado como seu dispositivo de computação e os EAs que você usa pode ser pensado como um aplicativo. Esses aplicativos irão disparar comércios automaticamente, desde que seus critérios de mercado pré-estabelecidos sejam atendidos e sua estação de negociação esteja aberta e funcionando. EAs podem ser encontrados através de uma simples pesquisa na web, mas algumas fontes para estes são certamente mais respeitável do que outros. Muitas vezes é melhor usar EAs que podem ser encontrados através de comunidades de negociação forex, como estes podem ser objectivamente testados e revistos. Sem essa segurança adicional, às vezes é difícil saber se a EA foi ou não exatamente testada e realmente capaz de produzir seus resultados alegados. Duas fontes populares para EAs podem ser encontradas em Forex Peace Army e Forex Factory. Muitos dos EAs listados nesses sites são gratuitos. Prós e contras Como dissemos antes, o comércio de forex automatizado está associado com seu próprio conjunto de benefícios e desvantagens. No lado positivo, as estratégias algorítmicas e quantitativas permitem que os comerciantes de forex monitorem efetivamente todos os aspectos do mercado cambial mesmo quando não estão monitorando ativamente sua estação de negociação. Pense nisso desta forma, você pode ter uma estratégia de grande sucesso, mas seria impossível assistir a cada par forex para os casos em que os seus critérios pré-determinados são atendidos. As estratégias baseadas em computador têm essa capacidade e isto pode permitir que você capitalize em comércios do forex que você pôde ter faltado de outra maneira. Do lado negativo, você quase certamente verá casos em que seu EA abriu um comércio que você pode ter evitado a si mesmo. Infelizmente, os algoritmos de computador são modelos digitais que se destinam a compreender um mundo analógico e haverá casos em que o seu modelo EA irá abrir posições mais agressivamente do que você pode ter em seu próprio país. Por estas razões, é geralmente uma boa idéia para manter seus tamanhos de posição forex menor do que você pode quando você está negociando manualmente. Em geral, é melhor olhar para suas taxas de sucesso ao longo do tempo e, em seguida, ficar com uma dada EA se produz resultados positivos que são consistentes. Negociação algorítmica e quantitativa não é algo que deve ser realizada de forma casual, como poderia abrir sua conta de negociação para potenciais perdas. Mas se essas estratégias são devidamente pesquisadas (e com precisão de volta testado), estratégias automatizadas pode ser uma ferramenta poderosa para adicionar ao seu arsenal de negociação forex. Forex Momentum Osciladores A fim de ganhar dinheiro no mercado forex, você precisará ter alguma maneira de previsão onde os preços são susceptíveis de cabeça no futuro. Uma das melhores maneiras de fazer isso é fazer uma avaliação de onde a maioria é a dinâmica do mercado é colocado. Há muitas maneiras de fazer isso, mas os analistas técnicos tendem a ter uma vantagem nessas áreas com a ajuda de algumas ferramentas de gráficos comprovados. Duas das opções mais populares podem ser encontradas no Osentador Momentum e no Índice de Força Relativa (também conhecido como RSI). Aqui, vamos olhar para algumas das maneiras comerciantes forex usar essas ferramentas e, em seguida, fornecer alguns exemplos visuais em gráficos moeda ativa. O Momentum Oscillator Ao olhar para avaliar o momentum dominante visto no mercado forex, um bom lugar para olhar é o Momentum Oscillator. Esta ferramenta de gráficos permite que os comerciantes de forex para medir a taxa de mudança que é visto nos preços de fechamento de cada intervalo de tempo. Momento lento pode ser uma excelente indicação de que uma tendência do mercado está pronta para reverter. Quando pontos de reversão são precisamente localizados, os comerciantes de forex são capazes de comprar baixo e vender alto antes que o resto do mercado fez a transição. Em suma, os comerciantes devem lado com a tendência dominante quando o Momentum Oscillator indica reforço. Os comerciantes devem apostar contra a tendência quando o Momentum Oscillator diminui e sugere que o mercado está atingindo um ponto de exaustão. Vamos dar uma olhada em um exemplo de gráfico em tempo real usando o GBP / JPY: Gráfico Fonte: Metatrader Aqui, o Momentum Oscillator é plotado abaixo da atividade de preço e mostrado em azul. Uma linha ascendente sugere que o impulso do mercado está construindo. Quando a linha de impulso cai para o fundo da medição, momento está saindo do mercado. Neste exemplo, podemos ver que os preços caem para suas baixas perto de 119.20. Os preços então começam a subir e isso é acompanhado por um forte sinal de tendência enviado pelo Momentum Oscillator (mostrado na primeira seta). Isso seria uma indicação para forex comerciante ao lado com a direção do último movimento de preço que, neste caso, é otimista. O GBP / JPY experimenta então um rally maciço acima da marca de 160. Neste caso, um comerciante de forex poderia ter visto os primeiros sinais enviados pelo Momentum Oscillator e iniciou uma posição longa no GBP / JPY. Se isso fosse feito, lucros significativos poderiam ter sido realizados com pouca ou nenhuma retirada. O Índice de Força Relativa (RSI) Outra opção para medir o momentum nos mercados de forex é usar o Relative Strength Index. Ou RSI. Esta ferramenta de gráfico compara ganhos e perdas recentes para determinar se os touros ou ursos estão verdadeiramente no controle do mercado. Em seguida, veremos um exemplo de RSI com gráficos usando o USD / JPY: Gráfico Fonte: Metatrader O RSI varia de 0 a 100. As leituras de indicadores acima da marca de 70 são consideradas sobre-compradas. Enquanto as leituras abaixo da marca de 30 são consideradas sobrevendidas. Os sinais de compra são gerados quando o indicador cai abaixo da marca de 30 e, em seguida, regressam acima desse limiar. Os sinais de venda são gerados quando o indicador sobe acima da marca de 70 e, em seguida, retorna abaixo desse limite. No exemplo USD / JPY acima, podemos ver que os requisitos para a postura de baixa são cumpridos como o indicador hits overbought território antes da leitura RSI começa a girar mais baixo. Como isso ocorre, o USD / JPY está negociando em 85,80. Em última análise, o par cai para 80,90 antes de voltar para cima, o que significa que qualquer comerciante agindo sobre o sinal de impulso gerado pelo sinal de venda RSI poderia ter capturado quase 500 pips de lucro com muito pouca retirada. Desta forma, o RSI pode ser uma ferramenta altamente eficaz é avaliar se o impulso do mercado é susceptível de ser alta ou bearish nas horas, dias e semanas à frente. Os comerciantes de Forex que olham para estabelecer posições baseadas no momentum subjacente presente no mercado podem beneficiar-se extremamente após consultar o RSI, porque é uma maneira rápida e fácil de avaliar se ou não os preços de mercado se tornaram overbought ou oversold. Forex Trading Forex comerciantes que estão olhando para basear suas posições a partir da perspectiva de análise fundamental quase sempre usar novos lançamentos na formação de uma postura de mercado. Estes comunicados de imprensa podem ter uma variedade de formas diferentes, mas o mais comum (e relevante) para os comerciantes de forex é o lançamento de notícias econômicas. Esses relatórios são agendados com antecedência e geralmente estão associados a expectativas de mercado derivadas de pesquisas de analistas. Calendários de dados econômicos podem ser encontrados facilmente em uma pesquisa na web, um bom exemplo pode ser encontrado aqui. Em alguns casos, essas expectativas são precisas. Em outros casos, eles não são. Por isso, é importante para os comerciantes de forex para acompanhar a evolução nestas áreas, como há muitas oportunidades comerciais que podem ser encontradas uma vez que os lançamentos de notícias importantes são tornados públicos. Uma das melhores maneiras de abordar esta estratégia é procurar diferenças significativas entre as expectativas iniciais e os resultados finais. Quando o mercado está reagindo às novas informações, os picos de volatilidade são vistos e as grandes mudanças nos preços podem ser bastante rentáveis se travadas nos estágios iniciais. Assessing Data Importance Of course, not all economic releases are associated with the same level of importance. Reports like quarterly GDP, inflation, unemployment, and manufacturing tend to come up toward the top of the list. But there will be cases where other, more minor economic reports are more relevant for a specific scenario. For this reason, it is important to avoid falling into a rigid routine when assessing which data reports are likely to be important and which are not. One of the best ways to assess whether or not a given report will significant move the market is to simply watch which upcoming reports are getting the most attention in the financial media. These reports tend to generate headlines once the results are finally made public, and financial news headlines will often dictate which trend is dominant on any trading day. Real-time Chart Example Let s take a look at a real-time chart example in the USD/JPY . In this case, markets were eagerly awaiting quarterly GDP figures out of the United States. Forex analysts were expecting a decline of -0.5 for the period . and this negative expectation sent the USD lower across the board. These trends forced the USD/JPY to lows near 92.70 just prior to the data release. Chart Source: Metatrader But onces the report was actually made public, it quickly became clear that the consensus estimate was incorrect and US quarterly GDP rose at a rate of 1 . In the chart above, we can see that the market reaction was quite pronounced and overtly bullish for the USD. Prices eventually rallied above the 99.50, driven largely by the changing market expectations for the overall outlook in the USD. Any trader that was actively watching the newswires during this release could have jumped in on this rally in the early stages and captured massive profits with little to no drawdown. Scenarios like this happen all the time. The reality is that it is quite difficult for forex analysts to accurately predict the results of economy data in all cases. Macroeconomic data is influenced by a countless number of factors (both national and global in nature), so it is essentially impossible for forecasters to build mathematical models that can make accurate forecasts every time. But it is important to remember that these differences between expectation and reality are the instances that create the greatest opportunity in forex markets. In essence, large surprises create large price moves. And these price moves can be translated to large profits if caught in the early stages. Minimizing Risk A final point to note is that news driven market events tend to create extreme volatility in forex prices. This increase potential reward also carries with it the increased potential for risk, so it is absolutely essential for forex traders to make sure that any established position is placed using a protective stop loss. In most cases, news data tends to force prices on one direction with very little to be seen in corrective retracements. But this will only work for positions that are taken in the direction of the data (ie. bullish positions for positive data, bearish positions for negative data). It can be difficult to place news positions quickly in some cases, so all orders must be placed to a good deal of care and attention. News trading can be quite profitable when done correctly but a certain level of caution is warranted, as well. Forex Technical Indicators Technical analysis is a popular method used in the forex markets, as it allows traders to view price activity in objective ways. This is helpful because it allows traders to spot not positioning opportunities before big price moves start to take shape. It can be argued that technical analysis is even more popular in forex than it is in areas like stocks or commodities. So, for those looking to tackle the currency markets and achieve long-term profitability, it makes sense to have a solid understanding of the terms and strategies that are commonly used. Since chart analysis has such an important impact on forex trading, it is not surprising that we see some technical indicators used that are less commonly known in other markets. Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) have their place in forex trading just as they do in stocks, commodities, and futures. But alternative indicators like Stochastics and Bollinger Bands are two examples of charting tools that might be less commonly known in the other financial markets. Here, we will look at ways trades can be placed when using these technical indicators. Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands were developed by a famous chart technician named John Bollinger. They are designed to literally envelope price action and give traders an idea of how far valuations might move if market volatility starts to increase. Let s take a look at a real-time example using the AUD/USD: Chart Source: Metatrader In the example above, we can see that Bollinger Bands are composed of three different lines that move in tandem with price activity. The upper band can be thought of as a resistance line . the lower band can be thought of as a support line . These two lines are then plotted along with a 21-period moving average . which is generally near the middle of the underlying price action. The upper and lower bands are placed two standard deviations away from price activity. These bands will tighten as market volatility declines, and then widen as market volatility increases. In terms of buying and selling signals, there are a few different points to note. First is that Bollinger Bands can be great in predicting future volatility. Again, we look at price activity in the AUD/USD : Chart Source: Metatrader In the chart above we can see that the Bollinger Bands constrict. This indicates a period of indecision in the market as fewer traders are activity buying and selling. But conditions like this can only last for so long. It might be that the majority of the market is waiting for an important economic release, and once that data is made public volatility should start to increase in a relatively predictable direction. Essentially, tight Bollinger Band readings suggest that the market is getting ready to make a big move (although the direction of that move is not yet apparent). Wide Bollinger Bands suggest the reverse, as excessive volatility will probably start to settle. Next, we look at ways the Bollinger Band indicator sends buy and sell signals to the market. Again, we look at the AUD/USD: Chart Source: Metatrader In this chart example, we can see the various says that Bollinger Bands send buy and sell signals to the market. Since the upper and lower bands should be thought of as dynamic support and resistance levels . the currency should be bought when prices fall to the lower band and sold when prices rise to the upper band . This is true because any time prices have reached the outer band, it shows that prices have now moved two standard deviations away from their historical average. Prices can only exist in these areas 5 of the time, so when prices are seen in these areas a reversal should be expected. For this reason, the currency pair should be sold when it rises to the upper band, and bought when it falls to the lower band. Stochastics Another technical indicator that is largely unique to common use in the forex market is the Stochastics indicator. This technical tool is useful in determining when prices have become cheap relative to the historical averages (oversold) or too expensive relative to the historical averages (oversold). Where Bollinger BAnds are plotted with price activity, the Stochastics indicator is plotted separate from the price action (below). Let s take a look at a chart example using the GBP/USD: Chart Source: Metatrader As you can see, the Stochastics indicator is plotted on a graph from 0 to 100. Readings above the 80 mark qualify as overbought, while readings below the 20 mark suggest the currency pair is oversold . Overbought readings suggest that traders should consider selling the currency pair, oversold readings indicate traders should consider buying the currency pair. Next, let s look at some sell signals that were sent in this chart: Chart Source: Metatrader In this chart, we can see a clear downtrend. But if we look at the activity in the Stochastics readings, sell signals were sent early on. When we look at the oversold readings that start near the halfway point, we can see slowing momentum in the levels that were hit by the indicator. This weakening momentum (ie. the indicator is no longer able to reach the same highs) should have signals that forex traders could start to sell the currency pair, prior to the massive downtrend that followed. Trade Management and Trailing Stop Losses One of the biggest mistakes made by new traders comes from the belief that once you initiate a trade, the process and your work as a trader is over. Unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth. And if you fail to actively manage your trades once they are placed, you will almost certainly encounter unnecessary losses. The forex market is always moving and evolving, and in many cases the environment can change significantly after your trade is placed. For these reasons, there will be instances where traders will need to adjust their stop loss levels and profit targets. Here, we look at some methods to manage your trades from a protective standpoint in adjusting your stop losses after the initial trade is executed. Active Stop Management On the positive side, if you are ready to adjust your stop loss it probably means that your position is gaining (in the money). If the market was moving against you, your stop loss likely would have been hit on its own. Many traders will look at trade management from a pip standpoint. For example, a trader might start to adjust the stop once the trade is positive by 50 pips. One strategy in a situation like this is to take profits on half the position . and then moving the stop loss to the break even point (the price level at which the trade was opened). This method effectively allows traders to capture some profits while removing any potential for further risk. If the stop loss is hit later, no losses will be seen. There are other methods that follow the same general logic but do not rely on pip values. For example, a trader might instead look at percentages as a way of determining when a stop loss should be moved. If the trade has made gains of 1-2 it would generally be a good idea to start taking risk off of the table and moving your stop losses to the break even point. In any case, there is nothing wrong with taking profits on at least some portion of your trade. As the old forex markets maxim goes, nobody ever went broke taking trading gains. Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR) An alternative approach require more aptitude in technical analysis. Here, we will introduce a less commonly used chart indicator called the Parabolic Stop and Reverse, or Parabolic SAR. The Parabolic SAR indicator is much easier to understand through visuals, so let s take look at the indicator at work using the EUR/USD: Chart Source: Metatrader Visually, the Parabolic SAR looks like no other indicator and it might even be a bit difficult to see on the chart. But here we can see purple dots that follow price action and send buying and selling signals in the process. Specifically, buy signals are sent when prices are above the plotted indicator reading. Sell signals are sent when prices are below the indicator reading. But these signals can also be used in positions that have already been established. For example, forex traders that are in active long positions might want to consider exiting those positions when sell signals are sent. Conversely, those in active short positions might want to consider reversing that stance if the indicator issues a buy signal. This is why the indicator is named the stop and reverse. Let s look at this chart again with the buy and sell signals identified: Chart Source: Metatrader Here, we can see how it looks when the Parabolic SAR sends its buy and sell signals. Let s pay special attention to the first two signals. The first downward arrow signals an opportunity to sell the EUR/USD currency pair. Assume that this short position was taken and held until a buy signal was sent at the second upward arrow. Here, a forex trader could have capitalized on a price move of roughly 600 pips before there was any indication that the position should be closed. If we look at the differences between the second and third signals (a buy signal and a sell signal, respectively), an even larger move is seen. With this in mind, it should be understood that the Parabolic SAR is a very powerful tool in terms of the ways it can allow traders to actively manage their positions once established. Forex Breakouts A large percentage of forex traders focus on technical analysis and use it as a basis for establishing new positions. To some extent, this makes a good deal of sense because analyzing the currency markets is a much broader task than analyzing the earnings outlook for a single company. Many more factors influence the economic prospects for an entire nation, so one solution for dealing with this is to pay more attention to price charts and using that information to establish forex trades. There are many sub-strategies that forex traders use when attacking these markets, but one of the most common is the breakout strategy . In this case, forex traders look for chart signals which suggest that currency prices are on the verge of a big move (in either the upward or downward direction). Here, we will look at some of the elements that go into spotting breakouts as well as some of the trade management rules that are typically associated with this type of trading. The End of a Sideways Market In order for a breakout to occur, we must first have a sideways, or consolidating, trading environment. Those familiar with some of the basics of technical analysis will understand the trading range which is where prices bounce back and forth between support and resistance levels with no dominant trend in place. Below is an example of a sideways market with range trading characteristics present: Chart Source: Metatrader The above chart shows sideways trading activity in the EUR/GBP . which is a currency pair that is often caught in trading ranges. Prices bounce back and forth from the support zone to the resistance zone and no dominant trend is present. Trading ranges cannot last forever, however, and once this trading range breaks down, there are increased for breakouts as the market adjusts to the new directional momentum. Breakouts Signal New Trend Beginning When one of these support or resistance levels is breached, forex traders start to position for the beginning of a new trend. The logic here is that market energy was building as price activity was constricting. Once these consolidative ranges break, the momentum that follows is often very forceful. When forex traders are able to spot these events in the early stages, significant profits can be captured when new positions are established in the direction of the breakout. Let s take a look at a downside breakout in the EUR/GBP: Chart Source: Metatrader In the chart above, we can see an example of a bearish breakout where prices are trading mostly sideways against a clearly defined level of support. In forex, breakout traders would be looking for an opportunity for new trades as the level of support finally breaks. This event occurs at the downside arrow, which comes in near the 0.9150 mark. Short trades could have been taken here, and roughly 350 pips could have been captured as the GBP strengthened and prices soon fell below 0.8800. Next, let s assess a bullish example using the USD/JPY : Chart Source: Metatrader In the chart above, we can see an example of a bullish breakout where prices are trading sideways against a clearly defined level of resistance. Here, breakout traders would be looking for an opportunity for long trades as the level of resistance finally breaks. This event occurs at the upside arrow, which comes in near the 81.80 mark. Long trades could have been taken here, and roughly 200 pips could have been captured as the USD strengthened and prices later rose to the 83.80 region. An added factor that can be seen in this example is the fact that prices pushed through the critical resistance zone, made a small rally strong indication that the breakout is valid and that 81.80 will now be viewed as support for the uptrend that follows. Commodities Intermediate Forex Advanced My Observations of the Forex Market theories about the market and understanding the forex market. binary system: the forex market is comprised of 2 forces only, buy/sell, in logic this leads me to believe that identifying the preasure and strength of these two powerful forces, and understanding when each force is not in equilibrium is what will assist in understanding the behaviour of the market. Many systems are based on prediction of price and price levels. where price might be at a certain point and time. some a based on the direction of price movement. in my observations of price behaviour the logic of the market is such, buy or sell, if not selling then that indicates the reduce selling force at the time, if not buying the buying force is reduced. one needs to understand supply and demand at its purest form. supply is the quatity available and demand is the desire to adquire it. market equilibrium is reached when the quantity demanded by consumers is equal to the quantity supplied. what does this mean in terms of understanding the forex market. i make the deduction that a reduction in volatility and a narrowing in price quotes, indicate market equilibrium. i have made the observation that after a period of reduced volaitility comes a period of increased volatility. when market equilibrium is broken by increase in orders of buy or sell. this observation was also made by Bollinger leading to the widening and narrowing of the bands, for this observation however i have no practical purpose i have not yet understood the power in its meaning, however, it correlates well with market times, asian roll over, london open, new york open and the overlapping of both. in my observations i have seen that players close their books and positions, or market swings are very pronounced sometimes counter trend sometimes, strong trend moves. However in Heaven, knowing times and seasons, this can prove to be of interest, as here is where much of the big pip movement occurs, and if one can observe be nimble and be able to catch this moves, the book can be augmented. ( For non TAF followers, my M. O attempts to be in line with the art of war, and the idea is that the market is too complex to be predicted by indicators, chart patterns, or indicators, all indicators have purpose. the key is understanding what they calculate. the market structure in a nutshell is comprised of The Fed, Central banks, Tier 1,2,3 banks, corporations, investment entities, hedge funds, insurances and companies, retail brokers and traders, common people holding money and so on. so a formula or indicator to predict this is fallacy. in summery on needs to dance in tune with the market, and let her guide you) my observations here are an attempt to decipher the market pulse, rhythm or flow. there is much talk about trend. but what is a trend dow theory states that there are trends within trends, and movement of price is comprised of short term, mid term and long term. long term i understand it to be the broad fundamental economic picture and general direction of price movement. for my purposes dow s theories are useful to me in short sense my broad picture comes in form of the daily read (weekly and monthly are too long term for me but one needs not discount anything, ) in my observations long term movement might not be practical but one needs to know the terrain a persistent bull market, indicates a persistent environment where buy orders are greater than sell orders. in my observations i believe that the most important Time frame ( if one believes in such thing) is the TICk, an organism is not form from big to small but from small to big. the longer time frames will reflect the movement of price in certain amount of time after so much time has passed, so 1 minute, reflects the amount of ticks in a minute 5 minutes the movement in 5 minutes 1 hr, the amount of movement in 60 minutes, 1 day the amount of movement in 1440 minutes, the forex market is opened for 5.5 days . so one week is 7920 minutes and one month is 31680 minutes. so while it is true that the tick will determine the month, the month measures the general movement of the tick. this leads me to beleive that all time frames are important, but the longer the time frame the more prediction comes into play. unless we are using the longer time frame to measure the lower ones not predict them. in the aspect of trend, higher lows, higher highs, or a persistent movement in one direction. as stated above the unbalanced force of either buy or sell. however this also leads me to believe that price has direction, if we are able to observe the direction, one might have an advantage. (first: identify direction, must be the order of business) in my observations i have found that price indeed moves in waves, some times not perfect waves, but it MUST follow three aspects A acceleration in towards B the loss of momentum after then C correction. observing the three individually and the force of each can be a visual aid and key in the read of further downward movement or continuation upward. example A-B acceleration the losses mommentum (can be visually calculated by candles) then a distribution or topping motion which is B then accelerates to C the corrective move (again the transition to A comes with loss of momentum) the A again in a rythmic tempo of ABCABCABCABCABC ( now it is KEY to point out that price is not a perfect uniform wave with equal direction, amplitude and velocity) that is why i have found this observation tool very promising because the strenght, and thrust of each respective phase helps in calculating the Force of supply and demand. (the observation method follows three laws abc, after A, B must come, after B, C must come, and after c A must be repeated) sometimes C is weak and almost none existent but it is there none the less (sell orders ALWAYS happen) the streght of this move signals continuation of demand. AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM these are my notes so far on the teachings of FTI Technical Analysis Fallacy Apologies no mentor, course, or literature can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading the markets. No one, sells the goose that lays the golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose . Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt. Since the late 70s into the millenium. Many engenieers have made public, their invetions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the fore front to sell their research findings. To name a few, the grand daddy being Charles Dow and his Dow theory which later lead to the creations of the Dow Jones Indexes. Rene descarte who introduced the Spiral studies. Leonardo Da Vincci who fostered the Fibonacci principles. W. D Gann, who introduced Cyclic Studies of squaring time and price. RN Elliot, who introducd the Ellio Wave studies. Wwilders who intoduced mathematics of calculating overbought and oversold markets by his introduction of the DI , DI-, ADX lines and the RSI, The stochastics, MACD etc. if one was to implement all these studies onto their charts. What you will see is a beautiful piece of art, displaying a very imprssive hog wash, that do nothing but dazzle the uninitiated. If anything else it will confuse you even more. Then you have the charting specialist who have introduced many ways to chart, linear charts, HI LO Close charts, Japanese candlesticks charts, point and figuring, john hills bar chart congestion and reversal patterns and reverse point waves, pivots, fractals etc. today, we find lots of originally mutated techniques and methodologies availabel to the chartis and technicians. What many fail to realise, is that all these studies, are basically statistical tables plotted in graphic form to represent a picture to assist traders in their decision process. The maxim being, tht a picture tells a thousand words. it is not theirs ( the charts) to reason why, but to signal sell or buy, for the trader to do or die, hoping that the signal does not lie I would, from many years of studies, go so far as to say, that they all work, some more than other but they all do serve a purpose. To give traderss the guts to do or die. If I may borrow from the quotes of Abraham Lincoln. you can lie to some people all the time, all the people some of the time, but not all people all the time similarly these studeis can work in some market conditions all the time, all market conditiont some of the time, but not all market conditions all the time. Think about what I ve just quoted carfully. The problem with some people and some professional Technical analyst today is that they use the technical studies as if it were the holy grail of trading and their patway to the millions. How far that is from the truth. Any person with a good brain on their shoulders, will ultimately come to the ralisations that these aer just tools. Tools that are built on historical and lagging databases. More over the rigidity of the parameters used in the studies impose rigid responses to changing maret conditions. Have we forgotten that the market is a live beast that learns and adapts to the trader behavious Many have forgotten that the market is a sum total of the behaviour of the participants engaged in the market place. These tools are used for measuring the market health, not unlike the thermometer to a doctor, or the measuring tape to a carpenter, just tools. Then how is it possible that these studies themselves can be considered the holy grail It may be due to ignorance (being new and uninitiated). lazyness, or just plain stubborness ( a little knowledge is a dangerous thing) of course it is not nice for me, to tell you about those who have a little knowledge , tying to scam those who know less than them. That is another story. Some do so, because of a very new disease discovered recently, the sickness of the chance . If you use technical studies as your holy grail I have only one word for you GAMBLER. I put it to you, that. to consider your Technical Studies to be more than they are is a fallacy in trading the markets, not so unlike martingale gambler s Fallacy. Pode levá-lo a um lugar muito escuro. What many traders do not know, or may fail to recognise, is that your succes in taming the markets, is comprised of a mix of ingredients. Não tão diferente em bolos. I suggest three very important ingredients. One is market structure the other is YOU then capitalisation. Of course there are many more components, for the moment these seem of dominant importance, in my humble opinion. Espero que você pense sobre o que eu disse com muito cuidado. I shall try to push these ajar for you slowly to show you the light at the end of the tunnel (please hope it s not an oncoming train) God willing. Regards FTI june 20 2010 summary of FTI TAF opening post FTI mentions that no mentor, course or literature can give you the holy grail, the key to unlocking our path to millions by trading the markets. If people possessed such key they would not give it away. He says that the way people are using technical studies noawadays is wrong. Wrong in the fact that we must not base our trades on indicators, or type of charts, they all display past price, the market is not 2 dimentional and mathematically predicatable, rigid . The market is comprised of humans, and humans behave differently. There are many players that move the market and many reasons for the forces of supply and demand and liquidity. To try to predict the market by past laggin statistical studies is FALLACY . All the technical indicators and studies, techniques and systems that are used today to trade the market where created for a purpose, one must understand them, but not follow them blindly. The financial markets is a place that allows buyers and sellers to sell financial securities, other derivative and tangible assets. In a financial economy the markets facilitate the rasing of capital, the transfer of risk, the transfer of liquidity and facilitate international trade. There a re many models and theories regarding the markets, lets take into account for example the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which in a nutshell indicates that prices cannot be predicted by looking at the past as the past action was driven by past events and the markets are inherently random due to the fact that the information that drives the market is priced in already. And the future price will move according to future information. Although humans are infficient in nature the sum of all particiapants make the market efficient as it give equilibrium. Behavioural finance however states that market inffeciencies occur due to the inefficient psychology of the market participants, human error will be priced in the markets as well, and sentiment, greed, fear, will play a role on the movement of price. Humans tend to repeat their mistakes one can attempt profit from current inefficiencies. Furthermore, predictive analysis such as elliot wave, pivot points, fibonacci are nothing but assumptions and opinions of where price MIGHT BE in the future, and because humans cannot predict the future such studies should not be regarded as the wholy grail. Lagging indicators give you statistical analysis of past price action, but cannot fortell future events either. The markets move in the now, and the movement of millions of market participants cannot simply be summerized in a simple mathematical formula. further on technical analysis leonardo did make public his studies in his notations which much later lead to the wide use of fibonacci principles in technical analysis. It was his initial studies made on the human anatomy, in how the human body extended itself and sub divided into systemic proportions that sparked later findings in the use of fibonacci and string sequence in their class of studies. These studies may survive today by the newly coined names of the golden sections technical analysis never did exclude the fundamentals from core of analysis, but made the assumption that all fundamental factors that were market sensitive would have itself present within the data of the price movements, thereby facilitating a complete analysis of all relevant fundamentals. Basically the componets of time, and volume, as inputs for data messageing. At advanced levels componets of volatility and derivatives of the greeks were also used gambling can be carried out based on a myrad of underling components as basis for risk taking. But TA becomes common denominator when its the attitude in the persuit of greed, rather than a respond to calculated risk, based on technical analysis expertise. Ie balck boxes models, breaks and crosses trading. Technical analsis has its foundations in the after the fact market data analysis and is used to detect systemic responses of markets. Remember stay with the trend is your only friend. There have been intense arguments in many newbie analyst circles that historical informaiton can predict the future, support and resistance level and lots of orders are placed at those key levels. From my engagements in the markets as a marketmaker, fx spot interbank we actualy capitalise on these sitting duck levels by sweeping for them, esp the stop zones. It is rather disturbing that some traders are over cowding their minds with too much indicator reads and neglecting the feel the trend aspect of which most lag indicators were devised for. Their over dependance on predictive indicators creats a very dangerous mindset for prudent trading. There has been a big growth of black box systems being sold by so called analyst that promotes and sells the fallacy that technical analysis is mostly predictive in nature using certain secret parameters. I have seen during my time that most fail over the long run, and it actually damages the outlook to technical studies. I guess the question at hand is, how can historical data, predict the future If it could, well have no more markets to trade. The fact that people builing assumptions into past data and passing tat as mainstream technical analysis just goes against the grains and fundation, that technical analysis was built upon WD Gann, using math and Astrology could predict the future with accuracy, would you believe that. When he died even his son John Gann disputed his father ability to do so. The unfortunate thing is that he carrried his methodologies to his grave left us guessing on what he actually did. There are actually true siences and mathematics in the most traditional technical analyhsis models and as time passes I find it distasteful that more and more superstition is creeping in. more and more artistic engineering is created to mask the fact that traditional TA models were never predictive at all. you see brokers are not all bad people out to get everyone. They provide a service of creating a replica model of the interbank markets for the consumption of the small traders at large. Of course their motivation to do so is profits but nevertheless they provide a service. At the very top of the battlefield command is the FED they are the owners of the market. Whatever you may trade its normally against the USD. Even the crossess, so in perspective you will always be walking into their radar. They have their chief Ben who have a whole squadd of people crunching numbers to determine their postions and whether there re things they could od to improve their position. Then down the food chain there s the other Central Banks having their radar on their respective currencies. The hands and legs of the FED are the CB dealers who s responsibilities are to police the markets. Making sure that its behaving itself. Its chief responsibility is to acertain that there s no riots in the market so long as things are peaceful they leave everybody alone to do their thing. Then just under them is the tie 1 bank dealers. These dealers are normally marketmakers to the interbank market, nad have very lanrge daylight limits and risk parameters to work within. They are also the eyes for the CB dealers as most large customers go through them to deal. So they can see who s bying or selling dollars. If there are irregularities where by some large customers comes into the marekts to buy or sell dollars. CB dealers are put in the know and will be on standby to see if markets may be distured. under the tier 1 there are the tier 2 banks and tier 3 banks, they functions as the lines of distribution. If as in the example above a large corp comes selling dollars and the CB dealers do not intervene, then the tier 1 banks will start selling the dollars down to tier 2 banks in smaller packages, and the tier 2 will likewise start selling to tier 3 in smaller packages, in 20 to 30 mins tat process fizz out and most dealers would be short of dollars to a certain extent. MORE on market structure, the FX market is a global decentralized otc market it facilitates the exchange from a curerncy to another currency, it can be use for speculation, carry trade, and facilitate comerse in the international market. Any transaction made from one currency to another is concidered a forex transaction. It can be traded in spot transactions, outright forwards, forex swaps, options and many other products. It is divided into different levels of access, at the top is the interbank market which is made of the largest commercial banks and security dealers. Then the top tier bank market, then the small banks followed by multi national corporations, large hedge funds, and even some of retail forex market makers. Pension funds, insurances, mutual funds, and other institutional investors have played an increasingly important role in financial markets in general, BANKS - the interbank market caters to both the majority of commercial turnover and large amounts of speculative trading every day. A large bank may trade billions of dollars daily. Some of this trading is undertaken on behalf of customers, but much is coducted by proprietary desks, trading for the banks own account. Until recently forex brokers did large amounts of business, facilitating interbank trading and matching anonymous counterparts for large fees. Today however much of this business has moved on to more efficient electronic systems. The brokers squawk box lets traders listen to ongoing interbgank trading and is heard in most trading rooms, but turnover is noticeably smaller than just a few years ago. Commercial companies an important part of this market comes from the financial activities of companies seeking foreing exchange to pay for goods or services. Commercial companies often trade fairly small amounts compared to those of the banks or speculatoers and their trades often have little shrot term impact on the market rates. Nevertheless trade flows are an important factor in the longterm direction of a currency s exchange rat. Some multinational companes can have an unpredictable impact when very large postions are covered due to exposures that are not widely know by other market participants. Central banks - national central banks play an importan role in the foreign exchange markets. They try to control the money supply, inflationg and or interest rats and often have official or unnofficial target rates for their currencies. They cfan use their often substantial forex reserves to stabilize the market. Nevertheless the effectiveness of central banks stabilizing speculation is doubtful because central banks do not go bankrupt if they make large lossess, like other traders would and there is no convincing evidence that they do make profit. Forex fixing - forex fixing is the daily monetary exchange rate fixed by the national bank of each conuntry. The idea is that central banks use the fixing time and exchange rate to evaluate behaviour of their currency. Fixing exchange rates reflects the real value of equilibrium in the forex market. Banks dealers, and online fx traders use fixing rates as a trend indicator. The mre expectation or rumor of central bank intervention might be enough to stabilize a currency, but aggressive intervention might be used several times each year in countries with a dirty float currency regime. Central banks do not always achieve their objectives. The combined resources of the market can easily overwhelm any central bank. Several scenarions of this nature were seen in the 1992-93 ERM collapse and in more recent times south east asia. hedge funds and speculators about 70-90 of the fx exchange transactions are speculative. In other words the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end. Rather they were solely speculating on the movement of the particular currency. Hedge funds have gained a reputation for agrresive currency speculationg. They control billions of dollars of equity and may borrow billions more, and this may overwhelm intervention by central banks to support almost any currency, if the economic fundamentals are in the hedge funds favor. investment firms - investment firm use the fx market to facilitate transactions in foreign securities. For example an investment manager bearing an internationsl equity portfolio needs to purchase and sell several pairs of foreign currenies to pay for foreign securities. Some investment management firms also have more specualtive secialist currency overlay operations, which manage clients currency exposures with the aim of generating profits as well as limiting risk. Whilst the number of this type of specialist firms is quite small many have large value of assets under management and hence can generate large trades. Retail fx traders individuals constitute a growing segment of this market with advent of retail forex platforms both in size and importance. Currently they participate indirectly through brokers or banks. Retail brokers while largely controlled and regulated in the US by CFTC and NFA have in the past been subjected to periodic fx scams. To deal with the issuea the NFA and CFTC began imposing stricter requirements. Particuarly in relations to the amount of net capitalizaition required of its members. As a result many of the smaller and perhaps questionable brokers are now gone or have moved to countries outside the US. A number of the fx brokers operate from the UK under FSA regulations where forex trading using margin is part of the wider OTC derivatives trading industry that includes CFDs and financial spread betting. Major currency pairs (positive correlation) Euro/ usd/, Gbp/Usd, Aud/usd, nzd/usd, (inverse correlating pair) usd/jpy, chf/usd, cad/usd, and the only pair non usd based is eur/jpy all other pairs use the usd as a base against the relative value of Usd against another pair usd/xxx vs usd/zzz xxx/zzz theories on what moves the exchange rates (none so far explains with certainty the reason of movement on a floating exchanger rate system) economic factors: gov fiscal polic (budget/spending practices) monetary poclicy, government budget deficits or surpluses, balance of trade trends, inflation levles, interest rates, economic growth, and productivity of economy. Political conditions, and market participant psychology. Risk aversion. All economic conditions is interrelated with forex. As you purchase stocks domestic or international, commodities, oil prices, liquidation of assets, carry trades. It all affects the forex market. how brokers function a Post by Genne 22 to FTI: if I may, let me throu in my 2 cents, as I do have some knowledge of the way honest brokers are structured, the rest I wont even go into, as they are a bunch of glorified bucket shops. A retail broker, usually has 2 books, A and B. when a new customer arrives he gets automatically placed in the B book, unless there is prior confirmed knowledge that it would not be wise thing to do, meaning the broker acts as the other side of the market. On the average, statistically most B book traders have 3 month against 9 negative, so you could see that having statistic enables the broker to simply bucket the trades internally, aslo an average life of a B book customers account is 3 months. Now, if lets say a customer shows a consistent rofit ( all customers are being analysed) he gets placed in an A book. The trades from an A book get offset by the other trades within that brokers operation and exess risk gets past on to a bank if it s a large broker or by agreement to a different broker. As far as margin calls go it is simply a way to part the customer with money, no more, no less. Also I cant forsee taking on such exessive risk by an experienced trader that he/she will be faced with a margin call. There are always risks but, traders that have an edge will always try to minimise it. In my opinion at leas. I have overleveraged a few times but only on a separate high risk account ( small 3 of the total account size). I had blown it twice but also managed to achieve 1000 returns a few times as well and put the exess back into the regular account, so overall it does help with faster rate of return given certain market conditions. I ve had a friend came from a dealing desk at a large bank (senior dealer) to the retail side. He had quiet an experience In the beginning, not a good one by the way, retail side is different, and that si something that ithink youll have to get used to. FTI: so in effects the brokers are booking all the customer trades. So ECN and NDD is just basically their in-house electronic network. I supsect there shouldnt be any difference except maybe for speed of filling orders. So there is really no interbank play to the trades, may be corp dealing for their net book exposures only. So their price would in reality come from interbank broker quotes right with regares to the margin call auto liquidation, why would traders put stop loss orders for protection, when there is an auto mechanism to protect them already In effect, wouldnt the traders using stop loss orders be actually pointing a loaded gun at their own head If the average extreme volatility of 25 up, is used for benchmarking, I would guesstimate that almost all accounts as you suggested, probably wont las a few months unless no leverage was used. Ust for info, I simulated that on a demo accout, made 1.30 USD using no leverage, the hardest 1.30 I ever made from the market using 50,000 usd principal. I dont forsee anyone would trade like that. In reality truly, all the traders would be actually setting themselves up to be taken out, once they decide to leverage their accounts. Before I simulated 50,000 account trading agressively to upto 3 mio usd, exposure, and made 100 within 2 weeks trading sparingly. Was just wondering if it could attract countermeasures from the broker. Nothing happen so I subsequently expired my demo account. According to your explanation, if this was to happen to them live. I would be on their B account list then. Do they have counter measures for such account or do they just wait for the trader to get greedy and make self imposed error genne 22: you are absolutely right on the interbank part as far as ECN goes which is supposed to be a real link to the interbank market, I had quite a few attempts to lure me into the nightmare, it is still a bucket shop so to speak. Ok now to actually positive side, there are a few brokers that I know personally that are quite reliable. The quotes are rather precise, you can set up a no slippage account and they treat you with respcet, I dont think its ethical to discuss it here. You are also right about the stops (they are red flags and brokers and large speculators do hunt them, if I have considerable positions on the market I can ask my broker to make the stops invisible, I think its still a gimmick as they still know where they are, so I only use catastrophic stops just in case and close out the positions manually once im in front of the screen and very difficult part to consistently making decent money with a little leverage. I peronally scale in and out, similar to the large speculative interest in the market intraday on a pefect market conditions and increased leverage. As far as countermeasures goes, if you are in a decent place you shouldnt worry about countermeasures, they will place you in the A book and will value your business as youll still creat a good income for them from the spread. If however you see that you didnt get filled when the ECN was quoted or got filled on a spike that never took place I would run like hell. FTI: So in reality they are lying when they say that the banks are filling the orders, when in effect they are running the book. Effectively making them market maker. In the interbank we use Reuters ASAP page as a guide, but when some of our dealing terminals call out, the market could be within 10 pip spread as quoted ASAP but some sectors do shade out of range, not considering the clowns that quote wide. My next quieston is if they are making market how do they determine the market at any give point in time, as the interbank is everywhere. Would I be correct to assume by virtue, that they are making market that they determine where marekt is at any give time. And their price is final. If my assumption is true, I would like to ask if you know how far do they tear from the interbank prices. Are there any arbitrager to correct the market. In the interbank system, we deal with the honor of my word is my bond . Its not unlike a knights code of honor and is strictly enforced by room chiefs. Therefore, when we deal, we at leas know what kind of character we are dealing with at the other end. Clown that cannot adhere to that protocol cannot last long in the interbank environment, they are weeded out. The interbank brokers also have a code, its not the same, but that s a different subject altoghether. What I m getting at is, if retails brokers are making marketts, can I actually trust them with watching my interest This is no way to suggest that they have no honor. But to hear that they would lie about bing an interbank as you clarified, I wonder how much good faith I can put in their hands FTI views on the market volatility to the nimble it presents more opportunities to the rigid it may pose nusance and increase suffering. To me the most important indicator is price. The market sigma, which is speed of move. The vega, which indicates volatility factor in its trend, and the time it consumes in it to push. You can determine all this from bare bar or candle charts. The other indicator is average true range with that you can determine if the volatility is out line with your risk tenure, you can best understand thhis by studying the original Dow theory. And those that are being used by conventional chartis today differs from my cup of tea. I think you may get a good grounding of that from the book by R. Edwards/J magee another imporant read is the market form I believe FTI is talking about momentum, speed, and accelaration as well as range. Perhabs ( )(v)/ time acceleration F (speed)(range)/time acceleration to measure conviction and strength of Force (demand or supply) market form possible structure bearish, bullish or ranging. The dow theory: 1 the market has three movements, the main movement, primary movement or major trend may ls from less than a year to several years. It can be bullish or bearish. The medium swing, or secondary reaction or itermediate reaction may last from ten days to three months and generally retraces 33 to 66 of the primary price change since the previous medium swinng or start of the movement. 3 short swing or minor movement varies with opinion from hours to a month or more. The three movements may be simultaneous, for instance. a daily minor movement in a bearish secondary reaction in a bullish primary movement. Market trends have three phases: dow theory asserts that major trends are composed of three phases: accumulation phase, a public participation phase and a distribution phase. The accumulation pahse is a period when investors in the know are actively buying (selling) stock against the general opinion of the market. During this pahse the stock does not change much because these investors are in the minority absorbing (releasing) stock that the market at large is supplying (demanding). Eventually, the market catches on to these astute investors and a rapid price change occurs (phase 2). this occurs when trend followers and other technically oriented investors participate. This phase continues until rampant speculation occurs. At this point the astute investors begin to distribute their holding to the market (phase 3) the stock market discount al news: stock prices quickly incorporate new information as soon as it becomes available. Once news is released, stock prices will change to reflect this new information. On this point dow theory agrees with on of the premises of the efficient market hypothesis. Stock market averages must confirm each other: in Dows time, the US was a growing industrial power. The US had population centers but factories were scattered throughout the country. Factories had to ship their goods to market. usually by rail. Dow s first stock averages were an index of industrial (manufacturing) companies and rail companies. To dow a bull market in industrials could not occur unless the railway average rallied as well, usually first. According to this logic, if manufactures profits are rising it follows that they are producing more. If they produce more, then they have to ship more goods to consumers. Hence, if an investor is looking for signals of health in manufacturers. he should look at the performance of the companies that ship the output of the mto market, the railroads. The two averages should be voving in the same direction. When the performance of averages diverge, its a warning that change is in the air. Trends are confirmed by volume: dow believed that volume confirmed price trends. When prices move on a low volume, there could be many different explanations why. An overly aggressive seller could be present for example. But when price movements are accompanied by high volume, dow believed this represented the true market view. If many participants are active ina paritcualr security, and the price moves significantly ino one direction, dow maintained that this was the direction in which the market anticipated continued movement. To him it was a signal that a trend is developing. Trends exist until definitive signals prove that they have ended: dow believed that trends existed despite market noise. Markets might temporarily move in the direcion opposite to the trend, bu they will soon resume prior move. The trend should be given the benefit of the doubt during these reversals. Dtermining whether a reversal is the start of a new trend or a temporary movement in the current trend is not easy. Dow theorist often disagree in this determination. Technical analysis tools attempt to clarify this but they can be interepreted diffferently by different investors. FTI: I try to recognise the compound formations In the bar charts. A good reference of forms study was done by the reasercher, by the name of John R Hill, im not sure if this studies are available to the masses. They read compound chart formations. And understanding of HIP and LOP patterns is foundational requirement. A complementary methodology is by complex candle chart formations. I find the books in englis on this too elementary, I used th have an understudy who had a copy of the secret reading by rice traders in hihongo. Unfortuately ive no contact with him for a long time since and my development on that has stalled. Do not play god with the markets the only thing a technical analyst can master is the art of dancing in tune the beat and tempo. Implement damage control when out of step. Money management and mindset are important as well. I use daily charts to indicate trend, I use short charts to indicate form. As above so bellow, what overll directional biased is established by dailchart as they ecompass trend and average range, force of speed and oveal market structure, the shorter timeframes are used to indicate form to see volatility and uderstand what market is doing now, as the short charts will reflect the daily chart in at the end. FTI uses an hourly SMA to see price tearing from the mean and see thrust of movement. And intraday direction. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. You see when bulls are making money, bears are not, when bears are making money bulls cannot, but one who is tying to catch both buses will soon be dead, crossing the road from one bus stand to another. Because he could be at the north stand when the south bus comes, or the south when the north comes. Or mostly in the middle of the road when both buses come this tells me that FTI infact when being nimble he did not mean turn coat at every turn and catch every pip, he in fact meant to always position ourself in the direcion of the daily trend. As tsun stu said that to seek higher ground and sunny places. For dealers is a different game because when markets are going up in a bear market, customers keep making them short their books keeps getting bigger short, but their average cost of being short keeps going up. All they have to do is to wait for the trend to enforce and when the market returns to the point whre the buying started he would make nearly the amount of money that made him short in the first place. For this to happne he has to have a book big enough to accommodate the customer base, and as the market swings back towards the starting point, he has to ascertain that his book of shorts be kept constant. This is because on the way down the customer will be making him long. So by contatly covering back to back on the way down he maintains his book short. So for the dealer as long as he maintains his poise in the direction of the market major trend, he will always make scalp money guaranteed. His MO is to duck and move quickly os to have a better average on the up swing towards stops, to maximize his shorting near the top of the swing. This scenario is most effective if there are stop near the levels where he has a large order sell, where he can help the customer sell OB and kill the sitting duck stops in the same blow. Another senario is where by the haeavy selling is CB levels or specific sell zones. Where many tier 1 are ready to pounch on the buyers. You must understand that only tier 1 and some big tier 2 will have this advantage. This is the reason why you have rubber band snap backs in the direction of the trend, and slow puffy moves counter trend. Am I making any sense to anyone here So we use daily trend as direction to build book size and short charts to make market for retraces, fti I keep the daily OHLC bar visible for the EUR, cable, yen. Short charts of the market actively trading, 5min 15 min candles, hourly at the back just in case with the hourly SMA plotted, to measure volatility Go placidly amid the noise and haste and remember what peace there may be in silence as far as possible without surrender, be on good terms with all persons speak your truth quietly and clearly, and listen to others, even when dull and ignorant they too have their story. Avoid loud and aggressive persons, they are vexations to the spirit if you compare yourself with others, you may become vain and bitter fof always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself Be yourself especially do not feign affection neither be cynical about love for in the face of all aridity and disenchantment it is perennial as the grass take kindly the counsel of the years, gracefully surrendering the things of youth nature strength of spirit to shield you in sudden mosfortune but do not distress yourself with imaginings many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness beyond a wholesome discipline be gentle with yourself you are a child of the universe, no less than the trees and stars you have a right to be here and whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should therefore be at peace with GOD, whateve you conceive him to be and whatever your labors and aspirations in the noisy confusion of life, keep peace with your soul with all its sham, drudgery and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world be careful, strive to be happy The trick is to hold very steadfast to the position allowing the snowball build on you, the maxim is to be able to take the punches first, once the rubberband swings back, whack them like theres no tomorrow within your capacity and keep taking profits along the way until the frenzy slows off then square down for the next attack. Important thing is to know your limits, if you have been snooked out of step once yo get the chance bail out, log stock and barrel try not to turn, if you do, you may become a pig. Now if anyone goes bankrupt doing this. dont take it out on me im just trying to tell you how its done, like the wwf ppl say, dont try this at home we train and train to be able to reflex like htat and to hold with our limitation remember its not easy. Tailor it for yourself within your risk apetite and limits, don kill yourself over it. Never risk more than 10 percent on a battle. Stop loss are for suckers, sure it gives you peace of mind, thats because youre not watching your babies but at what price dance the dance. If you cannot take the heat, stay out of the kitchen, if there is a problem, chances is either over leverage or over trading, or undercapitalise. These markets you are trading in, are killing fields. And theres lots of calm on the surface, in the undercurernts, theres lots of killing going on. And I kid you not about trends ask her, if she dont tell you, wait. Be patient, it will show, its not that she wont tell you, she hints, and hits, but if you dont get it, she get angry, shell tell you straight, if you can catch fine. Sometimes she dont wanna dance, she may just want a fling here and there, so wait. Otherwise there are many fishes in the sea. The key is to hold stead fast, allowing the snowball to build on you, you need to be able to take the punches first, and when the ruber band snaps whack em like there is no tomorrow, the key is to keep taking profits on the way, and when the frenzy slows square down for the next attack. Fti Mentions the turtle and the scorpion where the turtle knowing of the danger gave a ride to the scorpion across the river, the scorpion stung the turtle half way across as the waters got choppy and was sorry for now they both will drown but it was his nature. Beware of our scorpions, fears, greed, market movement. Do not trust or believe it will be different this time, for it will not. Then he mentione the story of the old man that prayed to god to save him from drowning from the flood. God sent several people but the old man refused to see it, and drowned. One needs to be aware of the scorpions or nature, and abandon hope, a decision when trading should be made on basis of analysis. Under adverse conditions the process should be focused on the resolve of. 1 if the position was desirable, then more capital will have to be put at risk, and a rescue of a badly timed position should be effected. 2 if any mitigating factors, disallows, for such to be effected the trader should bite the bullet, and put the position out of its missery, until it may be advantageous to re instate. No other thoughts should enter his mind to hamper the managing of the position. Under favorable senarios, such positions should be guarded with the resolve to ride it within acceptable posititve book parameters at all times. A wrongly timed entrance, just signifyis our lack of ability to pulse the market the right protocol I repeat, would be to either withdraw from the position, with minimal damage. Damage control or to commit into the position as a rescue process and a re average process for position retrival. There is no other avenues other than these two. If the position was bad, and the trader reverts back to analysis, the the whole process collapses into hope. And a host of subjectivity and egotistical processses begins. Which will paralyse the traders determination and create illusional thinking. Remember that in trading there are no rules so try not to enchain ourselves. When a position is opened it needs to be carefully examined before hand through technical analysis, however one needs to continue to do analysis on what is going on and developing before our eyes. One read analysis is not enough (conditions change in the go) if a position goes underwater, one has an array of options according to the present situation, one can hold ( in bad timing but right direction the position will rectify itself) one can rescue ( if danger of condition changing, one can find a point where it will be a good idea to bring the average close to market as to get out and re assess the field (turning tail in panic will get you slaughtered, using one head to analyse terrain, is a must) one can also liquidate and bite the bullet. This is not so good as the capital loss has a detrimental effect on the book, and bringin it back to break even will require more effort. However not all positions can be rescued or salvaged so one needs to constantly use our brain in analysis. When in attack, if our position is sound, one needs to take advantage of this and attack forcefully, always watching for signs of reversals. Trading requires, consentration, analysis, critical thinking and insticts, ( flexibility is a must) up to page 33 (will continue to read and post notes for the new students) AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM his teachings as far as i have read and notes i have been taking are clear and simple, the implementation is not 1- The market is too complex to be predictable 2- one needs to do analysis, in an ongoing basis ( to do analysis one needs to information, so one needs to study) study and seek knowledge not to predict but to have more tools at your disposal 3- one needs to concentrate, and have a relaxed mindset, attempt to not put assumptions or opinions on the charts but unbiased analysis 4- do everything strategically ( read the art of war. its a must) 5- feel the rhythm and pulse of the market, never argue with her 6- if positions get in trouble, trouble shoot them 7- if positions are favorable, take advantage of them if the position was desirable then more capital will have to be put at risk aand rescue of the badly timed position must be affected. If any mitigating factors. disallows for such to be affected the trader should bite the bullet and put the position out of its misery. Unitil it may be advantageous to re instate. Snowballing loss can potentially become loss averageing, in which is a bad speculation practice. If trading against the daily trend, because the trade is not a wrong timing, it is wrong direction learn to be able to distinguish between a wrongly timed trade and an ego trade. Please do not mistaken that ego trades are intentional, to understand that, re read the turtle and the scorpion story. Where it talks about human nature and self destructiveness, believing in falce promises of a scorpion that will sting you when the waters become choppy learn to dance the dance of the market, learn to feel the market pulse, follow the price, just follow, stop thinking, stop predicting, trade in the direction of price and institute safety protocols, maximize profit. so far a fibo attack progression is mentioned 1,1,2,3,5,8,13. the constant factor here is that although bringing our average close to market 50 retrace is what can wipe out profit, depending on how we institute this that will give us plenty of time to reduce risk, a spiral rescue sequence is also mentioned 1,3,9 or 1:3 to bring the market average close to the badly timed position. powerful tool in the wrong hands can chop your head off AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM Commercial Member Joined Nov 2010 135 Posts More regarding price movement. Prices can only go up and down like Red lion posted before. I am just adding some visual. Price movement is in three phases. It is either going up, down or in correction. After any significant move they go into correction. It become more clearer as you zoom out meaning if you look at it from a larger time frame. This gives you an idea as to what the market is doing at that point of time. As Redlion pointed out that the newest footprint of the market is the tick then the min and so on so forth. After u get the idea what the market is doing then one can go in the shorter time frame and see what hands the market is showing. Joined Jun 2010 Status: Hello, Mr. Market 1,736 Posts thank you redlion, really really thank you for your notes about fechnical analysis fallacy. you know, fti s thread is too long. i am not lazy, but your post may let me more efficient A chart helps those who can read it. Joined Jan 2011 Status: Member 2,676 Posts dicipine must be implemented in trading as well, FTI gave a story on the military way of discipline. The General needs to know what he is trying to accomplish in order to tell his commander to implement. The orders need to be clear and distict, (one cannot think that we can go in the markets and just take pips as we please, a general idea of our strategy must be in place) not to be confused with rigid rules. Damage is part of the battle, recovery is essential, vicoty is the objective for every single trade Every battle is a continuation of the last, every battle must make you better for the next, if you fail to develop, you shall become road kill. The art of war as I understand it the art of trading is of vital importace to the trader it is a road to safety or to ruin, a sound trading methodology is a subject of inquiry which can in no account be neglected there are 5 constant factores to be taken into account when determining the success in a career of a trader THE MORAL LAW: the moral law causes the trader to be in complete accordance to his persuit, so that he will have the will to follow his quest undismayed by any danger. The purpose to take on to trading as a career and the will to achieve ones goal it is of vital importance. This gives us the drive and hunger to do whatever it takes, to study long hours, to try, and try again until our goals are achieved. HEAVEN: signifies night and day cold and heat, times and seasons. It is the time of the trading day ( including knowledge of timezones and interections of trading zones, as well as months in the year, fundamental news that might affect the charts) HEARTH: it is the terrain, the chart in front of us, and every information contained in the chart, the technical analysis. Price itself. THE COMMANDER: the mindset, how well we can implement our strategy, virtues, wisdom, sincerity, benevolence, courage and strictness. METHOD AND DISCIPLINE: the management of our resources, the subdivision and graduations. Our position sizes, our attack and rescue skews. The general that harkens to my counsel and acts upon it, will conquer let such a one be retained in command, the general that harkens not to my counsel nor acts upon it will suffer defeat, let such a one be dismissed. The lesson here is that we need to be effective generals and abide by these rules, if we cannot let our thoughts be dismissed. Howeve while following these concepts we should also exploit helpful circumstances over and beyond the ordinary rules. Never enchain ourselves in what we must or must not due, flexibility profit according as circumstances are favorable, one should modify ones plans. Strict and robotic systems or way of trading must not be implemented, everything is relative, relative to current information, relative to current opportunities. All warfare is based on deception hence when able to attack we must seem unable, when using our forces, we must seem inactive, when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away, when we are far, we must make him believe we are near. This in itself needs no explanation but lets ponder this, why place physical stop orders and take profit orders Are we not letting our brokers know our point of defeat and profit Do you not think they have ways of shading or quoting prices even moving markets to sweep areas. Every ones goal is profit. Hold out baits to entice the enemy feign disorder and crush him ( use the baits laid in the battlefield for you own advantage ) for this one must look up and study on cascading, or triggering of stop loss orders. If your enemy is of choleric temper seek to irritate him, pretend to be weak that he may grow arrogant (dont make this mistakes yourself) if he is taking his ease give him no rest, if his forces are united, separate them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected. If the enemy is weak and your forces are in profit, press the attack, take advantage of the movement. These military devices leading to victory must not be divulged beforehand now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple where the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand, thus do many calcuations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculations at all, it is by attention to this point that I can forsee who is likely to win or lose. How true this is. to make calculations on technical analysis, understanding the terrain we are trading, calculating skews to press when in profit, calculating how to trouble shoot the trade, calculationg on position sizes, analysing ongoing data, with flexibility and looking for circumstances to exploit to our favor. How many times has trader just placed a trade blindly HOPING to catch profit What a fool. AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM Joined Jan 2011 Status: Member 2,676 Posts trading can be costly, when you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then the mens weapons will grow dull their adord will be damped, if you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength, again if the campain is protracted the resources of the state will not be equal to the strain. This talks of protracted rescue battles, in the matter of rescues, one must bring the average close to market as to be able to get out of a losing position. However the battle must not be protracted, rescues most be quick and swift, if we approach level 3 the snowball risk is big. One must first calculate the level of pain and understand how much rescue can our account take. Do not let rescues become loss snowball. So then why risk our account to this. One must understand that losses are detrimental, example if one loses 50 of a 100 dollar acount, our basis is now 50 dollars. In order to bring the account to b/e one will need to make 50 dollars that is 100 of the current acount. That is why loses MUST NOT BE ACCEPTABLE. However, protracted battles drain the treasurie. As mentioned before, spiral rescues must be implemented in the direction of the daily trend. Safety of the book is our main concern. Now when your weapons are dulled your ardor damped, your strenght exhausted and your treasure spent. Other chieftains will spring up to take advante of you extremity. Then no man however wise will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue. Do not become over extended, this is detrimental to mindset, a tired, defeated mind makes stupid decisions. Thus we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays. There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare it is only one who is thoroughly acquainted with the evils of war can thouroughly understand the profitable way of carrying it on. Experience in effectively carrying out your modus operandi, one must learn from each trade. practice, practice, train, experiment, make yourself prepared for all eventualities The skillful soldier does not raise a second levy, neither are supply wagons loaded more than twice. Bring war material with you from home, but forage on the enemy, thus the army have food enough for its needs. This is a must, we must forage on the enemy, foreing capital for our risk adventures, one must risk the markets money not our own. When in profit one must press the attack risking previously foraged pips hence the fibo progression 11235813. letting the positions come into profit and risking that profit to press the next attack. ( never risk your money always risk the markets money) using money from one s account and losing money from our own account causes us to be empoverish, hense the wise trader makes a point of foraging on the market. One pip of the market provisions is better than ones own. The art of war says that we must implement rewards and insentives. One must have a plan in with drawing money, and one must also reward ourselves from our trades. It is good to make our trading account grow, but a plan of withdrawal is imperative. In war let your objective be victory not lengthy campains. Thus it may be known that the leader of armies is the arbiter of the peoples fate, the man on whom it depends whether the nation shall be in peace or in peril. You are responsible for all your losses and gains, you are responsible for your failures. Not the market not your trading signals, not anyone but you. AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM Commercial Member Joined Nov 2012 27 Posts INDIA . Russian President Vladimir Putin is in New Delhi for new Trade INDIA . INR fell 1.1 last week INDIA . Bullish INR: 1year put options on USDINR 181 basis points more expensive over week U. S.Budget talks stalled, boosting concern lawmakers will fail to agree on a deal to avoid tax US Republicans cancel vote on Speaker Boehner s plan to allow higher tax rates for annual income above 1 million last week, GOLD . ETPs climbed 12 this year to 2,631.794 metric tons Lifetime High JAPAN: PM Bank of Japan to adopt a 2 inflation target. CHINA: PBOC cut the fixing by 0.05 to 6.2913 per USD today, US Fiscal Cliff More Than a 50 Probability, Says Bill Gross U. K. house prices fell for a 6th month in December Forecast that values will fall 1 in 2013 SINGAPORE Forecast inflation slowed to 3.8 in Nov. from 4.0 in Oct theories about the market and understanding the forex market. binary system: the forex market is comprised of 2 forces only, buy/sell, in logic this leads me to believe that identifying the preasure and strength of these two powerful forces, and understanding when each force is not in equilibrium is what will assist in understanding the behaviour of the market. Many systems are based on prediction of price and price levels. where price might be at a certain point and time. some a based on the direction of price movement. in my observations. You made some thoughtful observations and theory . Im looking forward for more I will become the World s best at my own style Joined Nov 2012 Status: Member 116 Posts Hi redlion, This is very close thought of forex market. I agree of your topic. However a trader i mean a trader come out after several years involved in this market. I notice you posted chart a nice colorful Indi. This is a very much visual effect. And VT platform this kind of indi generally uses. May i have this in forex factory or if you mind to share it. Thanks for your market view. Happy trading all. Saudações.
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